Description

This analysis provides a forecast of FIL prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2026-01-04 1.127824 1.190138 1.254715 1.326770 1.405090 1.487822 1.582062
2026-01-11 1.041135 1.130603 1.227362 1.340330 1.469305 1.612808 1.785739
2026-01-18 0.978997 1.083937 1.200791 1.341626 1.508208 1.700817 1.943121
2026-01-25 0.944923 1.063165 1.198089 1.365167 1.568966 1.812796 2.131811
2026-02-01 0.890942 1.014374 1.157798 1.339064 1.565440 1.843598 2.219087
2026-02-08 0.839227 0.964684 1.112624 1.302760 1.544920 1.849249 2.271273
2026-02-15 0.805756 0.934814 1.089194 1.290899 1.552846 1.889589 2.369594
2026-02-22 0.781985 0.915300 1.076980 1.291629 1.575770 1.949381 2.496997
2026-03-01 0.751364 0.885725 1.050493 1.272102 1.570106 1.969371 2.568537
2026-03-08 0.716770 0.849719 1.014200 1.237741 1.542189 1.956391 2.590209
2026-03-15 0.696424 0.830931 0.999033 1.230263 1.549876 1.992620 2.686022
2026-03-22 0.686421 0.824868 0.999856 1.243830 1.586763 2.071723 2.852034
2026-03-29 0.666753 0.806262 0.984349 1.235635 1.594181 2.110787 2.962900
2026-04-05 0.656097 0.799073 0.983675 1.247785 1.631290 2.196202 3.156190
2026-04-12 0.642106 0.786867 0.975621 1.248952 1.652007 2.257515 3.314657
2026-04-19 0.636318 0.785275 0.981700 1.270128 1.703154 2.368969 3.569722
2026-04-26 0.615218 0.762327 0.957587 1.246645 1.685231 2.368977 3.626480
2026-05-03 0.592102 0.735997 0.927961 1.213949 1.651489 2.341089 3.629351
2026-05-10 0.577639 0.721074 0.913741 1.203257 1.651238 2.367971 3.736373
2026-05-17 0.567698 0.712044 0.907435 1.203915 1.668618 2.425039 3.906276
2026-05-24 0.552366 0.695133 0.889437 1.186304 1.655900 2.429811 3.973494
2026-05-31 0.533462 0.672816 0.863152 1.155280 1.620196 2.392742 3.952916
2026-06-07 0.522978 0.662018 0.853062 1.148523 1.623597 2.424180 4.075771